Research & Insights
Weekly market briefs, monthly macro reports and company research from our analysts.
Macro Monthly Report
Inflation spread beyond energy as US CPI reached 3.7% and euro area HICP hit 3.8%. AI-related borrowing now accounts for 18% of investment-grade issuance, pushing long-term yields higher. The S&P 500 eased 0.67% as credit stress and Japan’s capital repatriation added new risks.
Is France the New Italy?
Paris now pays more to borrow than Rome and Athens. France's 10-year yield hit its highest level since 2002, and the spread to Germany its widest since 2011. How France got here, whether the ECB can step in, and what it means for markets.
Brazil Just Surprised Everyone
Flávio Bolsonaro unexpectedly won the first round of Brazil's presidential election with 47.0% to Lula's 45.2%, and Brazilian assets had one of their best days in years. What the two almost opposite plans mean ahead of the 25 October runoff.
Higher for Longer
A short recap of the global bond market. U.S. long-end yields have moved to multi-decade highs, Japan is seeing the same pressure, and rising energy prices are adding to an already challenging inflation backdrop.
Macro Monthly Report
The Fed, ECB and BoJ all hiked in September as the Middle East energy shock pushed US CPI to 3.4% and euro area HICP to 3.3%. Brent rose 22% to $104.45 and the 10y Treasury hit 5.17%, its highest since 2007. The S&P 500 closed at record highs with the VIX at 14.21.
Macro Monthly Report
US Q1 GDP grew 2.0% annualized while inflation remained elevated; the S&P 500 hit a record 7,398.93 on 8 May and the Fed's 8-4 hold was its most divided decision since 1992. The ECB left rates at 2.00% and warned that upside inflation risks had intensified. Oil and Hormuz disruption are still creating significant geopolitical and market stress.
Macro Monthly Report
The Iran war has entered a more dangerous and structurally entrenched phase. The April ceasefire collapsed within 72 hours, the US imposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13, and the stagflationary impulse first identified in March is now confirmed in hard data. Brent crude is ~+59% YTD.
Sensirion Holding AG
A high-quality sensor play on automation, electrification and environmental monitoring — with 34–50% upside from current levels.
Macro Monthly Report
The Iran war is the defining macro event of 2026: the Strait of Hormuz blockade has engineered a stagflationary supply shock that simultaneously raises inflation and destroys growth, leaving every major central bank without a clean policy response. Brent crude ~+46% YTD.
Membership Letter Fall Semester 24
A reflection on a remarkable semester — 100+ members, 200% growth in event attendance, and the principles guiding our next chapter.
The Power Law
How venture capital works, why 80% of returns come from fewer than 20% of bets, and what that means for how we think about investing.
Disclaimer: All content on this blog is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice.